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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.82vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+5.46vs Predicted
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3University of Texas1.63+1.31vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+1.28vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.25+3.52vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.50+1.80vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-1.29vs Predicted
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8University of North Texas1.72-3.83vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.17-0.29vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-1.43+2.46vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-4.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.43-1.67vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.24-3.28vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.07-5.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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4.31University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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5.28University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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8.52University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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7.8University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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5.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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4.17University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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8.71San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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12.46California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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6.97California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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9.72University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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8.75Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Froelich | 17.3% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 10.1% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Noah Barton | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 2.1% |
| Kai Ponting | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Dutch Byerly | 18.8% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 4.0% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 56.1% |
| Ben Louttit | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 15.3% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 15.5% | 11.0% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.