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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+9.47vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.90+4.56vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.20+5.70vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+4.96vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.32+3.93vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.04+3.61vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.75vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-1.89vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.61-2.25vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.56+1.22vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.95vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.75-5.02vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.94-0.59vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.10-4.47vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University1.27-1.77vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-4.33vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida0.90-3.88vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California1.40-7.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.47University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.2%1st Place
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6.56Dartmouth College2.909.7%1st Place
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8.7Boston College2.206.2%1st Place
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8.96University of Rhode Island2.785.7%1st Place
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8.93University of Miami2.326.2%1st Place
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9.61Tulane University2.044.0%1st Place
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7.75U. S. Naval Academy2.606.6%1st Place
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6.11Harvard University3.0511.9%1st Place
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6.75Stanford University2.619.2%1st Place
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11.22University of Hawaii1.563.5%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.5%1st Place
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6.98Georgetown University2.758.6%1st Place
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12.41Fordham University1.942.1%1st Place
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9.53Jacksonville University2.104.8%1st Place
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13.23Northwestern University1.271.9%1st Place
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11.67Webb Institute1.433.1%1st Place
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13.12University of South Florida0.901.8%1st Place
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10.95University of Southern California1.403.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Trey Summers | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 14.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 22.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 20.1% |
| Luke Harris | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.