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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.09+3.72vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.50+7.65vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.27+4.26vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.29+6.47vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University4.33-0.85vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80-0.30vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.13+3.94vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-4.14vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01-3.85vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.68-0.85vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.73-1.88vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.23-1.33vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.60+1.94vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology2.02-2.54vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia3.01-6.89vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.50-3.08vs Predicted
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17Hamilton College0.75-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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9.65Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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7.26Cornell University3.270.1%1st Place
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10.47Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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4.15Georgetown University4.330.2%1st Place
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5.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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10.94Columbia University2.130.0%1st Place
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3.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.2%1st Place
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5.15Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.15University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.12SUNY Maritime College2.730.0%1st Place
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10.67George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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14.94Hampton University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.46Stevens Institute of Technology2.020.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.92Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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14.73Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Hayes | 14.2% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Philip Alley | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| Scott Furnary | 17.9% | 17.9% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Magill | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 1.5% |
| David Thompson | 20.7% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Devon Hofmeister | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Kimannee Simon | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 23.4% | 42.2% |
| Christian Geary | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 3.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Gene Merewether | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 9.9% |
| Julie Webster | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 22.2% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.