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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.13vs Predicted
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3University of North Texas1.72+1.11vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University0.17+4.66vs Predicted
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5University of Texas1.63-0.48vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.38+2.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.24+2.57vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-1.12vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-2.99vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.50-2.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-3.27vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.07-3.02vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.43-0.66vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.43-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.13University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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4.11University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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8.66San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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4.52University of Texas1.630.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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6.88California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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6.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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7.8University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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7.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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8.98Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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12.34California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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10.22University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 13.3% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Dutch Byerly | 18.5% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Ethan Froelich | 13.6% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 9.9% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Kai Ponting | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Noah Barton | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| George Soliman | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 7.5% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 55.5% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 22.1% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.