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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.74+5.81vs Predicted
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2University of Texas1.63+2.22vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+4.73vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+1.33vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.02vs Predicted
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6University of North Texas1.72-1.76vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.24+2.57vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-2.04vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.17-0.27vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.38-1.91vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.07-1.98vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.50-4.35vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.43-2.75vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.43-1.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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4.22University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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7.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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5.33University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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5.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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4.24University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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5.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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8.73San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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8.09University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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9.02Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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7.65University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.37California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Louttit | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Froelich | 17.3% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 10.4% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.6% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Dutch Byerly | 17.0% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 10.5% |
| Kai Ponting | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 4.6% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 6.7% |
| Noah Barton | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 20.8% | 14.2% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 54.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.