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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Texas1.63+3.52vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.91vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.42vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.38+4.26vs Predicted
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5University of North Texas1.72-0.64vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.74+1.28vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University0.07+1.91vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-1.90vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.50-1.01vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.43+0.64vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University0.17-2.07vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-4.03vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.43-0.53vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.66-6.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.42University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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8.26University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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4.36University of North Texas1.720.1%1st Place
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7.28California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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8.91Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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6.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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7.99University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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10.64University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.93San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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7.97University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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12.47California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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7.25University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Froelich | 15.9% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| Dutch Byerly | 14.1% | 18.1% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Kai Ponting | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Noah Barton | 5.7% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 24.4% | 16.7% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 6.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 59.5% |
| Will Cornell | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.