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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Texas1.63+3.51vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.38+6.01vs Predicted
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3University of North Texas1.72+1.26vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+2.17vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.66+2.50vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-2.12vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.43+2.38vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-1.74vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.17-1.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.50-3.02vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.07-2.77vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.43-0.53vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-6.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51University of Texas1.630.1%1st Place
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8.01University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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4.26University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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6.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
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5.59University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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10.38University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.26California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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8.97San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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7.98University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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9.23Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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12.47California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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7.79University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Froelich | 15.0% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% |
| Dutch Byerly | 17.1% | 17.1% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Will Cornell | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 22.1% | 17.1% |
| Ben Louttit | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 5.0% |
| Noah Barton | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 2.4% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 8.4% |
| Rob Reigelman | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 57.7% |
| George Soliman | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.