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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.85vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.03vs Predicted
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3University of North Texas1.72+1.12vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.25+4.45vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+1.09vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.24+3.86vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.50+0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Texas1.63-3.60vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-2.05vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.17-1.31vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.43+1.46vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-4.31vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.43-2.80vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.07-5.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.03University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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4.12University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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8.45University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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6.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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7.36University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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4.4University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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6.95California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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8.69San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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12.46California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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8.85Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 13.1% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Dutch Byerly | 17.5% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% |
| Kai Ponting | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 17.5% | 10.3% |
| Noah Barton | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Ethan Froelich | 16.9% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.3% | 4.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 4.2% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 57.3% |
| George Soliman | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 20.4% | 13.0% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.