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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Texas1.63+3.47vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.66+5.19vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.25+5.58vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.09vs Predicted
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5University of North Texas1.72-0.66vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.46vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.43+3.24vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.50-0.21vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.04vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-3.77vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-3.81vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.17-3.16vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.07-3.95vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-1.43-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47University of Texas1.630.2%1st Place
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7.19University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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8.58University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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5.09University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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4.34University of North Texas1.720.2%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.79University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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6.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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7.19California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.1%1st Place
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8.84San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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9.05Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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12.49California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Froelich | 15.5% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Will Cornell | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Zackery Martin | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 4.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Dutch Byerly | 15.2% | 17.2% | 14.7% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 20.8% | 16.2% |
| Noah Barton | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% |
| George Soliman | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| Kai Ponting | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Ben Louttit | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 6.0% |
| Matthew Beretta | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 6.7% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 14.0% | 58.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.