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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+1.94vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+1.51vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.72vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.62+2.24vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+1.57vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.96vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.54+2.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.00vs Predicted
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9University of Texas0.56-2.52vs Predicted
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10University of North Texas-0.49-0.63vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University-0.48-1.70vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.32-3.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-2.02-0.66vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-2.17-1.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.3%1st Place
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3.51University of California at Los Angeles1.700.2%1st Place
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4.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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6.24University of Washington0.620.1%1st Place
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6.57University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.1%1st Place
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6.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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9.16San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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6.0University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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6.48University of Texas0.560.1%1st Place
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9.37University of North Texas-0.490.0%1st Place
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9.3Northwestern University-0.480.0%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.34University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
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12.56California State University Channel Islands-2.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Paquin | 29.2% | 23.6% | 14.5% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 20.5% | 19.6% | 15.9% | 15.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 11.5% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 5.1% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Max Case | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Burton | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 10.9% | 2.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| John Mason | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Snyder | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 4.2% |
| Maxime Visa | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 3.3% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 29.6% | 39.4% |
| Joseph Silveira | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 23.4% | 47.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.