← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+3.52vs Predicted
-
2California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+0.77vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Los Angeles1.70+0.41vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+2.22vs Predicted
-
5University of Washington0.62+1.08vs Predicted
-
6University of Texas0.56+0.27vs Predicted
-
7University of North Texas-0.49+1.76vs Predicted
-
8San Diego State University-0.54+1.05vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Davis-0.32-0.42vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Berkeley-0.55-0.77vs Predicted
-
11University of California at San Diego-2.02+1.28vs Predicted
-
12Northwestern University-0.48-3.02vs Predicted
-
13California State University Channel Islands-2.17-0.58vs Predicted
-
14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-7.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
-
2.77California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.3%1st Place
-
3.41University of California at Los Angeles1.700.2%1st Place
-
6.22University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.1%1st Place
-
6.08University of Washington0.620.1%1st Place
-
6.27University of Texas0.560.1%1st Place
-
8.76University of North Texas-0.490.0%1st Place
-
9.05San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
-
8.58University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
-
9.23University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
-
12.28University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
-
8.98Northwestern University-0.480.0%1st Place
-
12.42California State University Channel Islands-2.170.0%1st Place
-
6.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 12.3% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brock Paquin | 28.8% | 25.4% | 17.7% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 21.7% | 20.7% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.2% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Erin Pamplin | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| John Mason | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Snyder | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.1% |
| Morgan Burton | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 2.6% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 10.3% | 3.2% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 27.4% | 39.5% |
| Maxime Visa | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% |
| Joseph Silveira | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 23.4% | 46.5% |
| Max Case | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.