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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.56vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-0.72+5.80vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.58vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-1.14+5.21vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-0.30vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33-0.86vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy0.50-2.64vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+0.66vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-3.12vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-2.23vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-2.28+0.96vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.80-1.09vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.71-2.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.07-5.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.56California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.2%1st Place
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7.8University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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5.58University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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4.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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5.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.1%1st Place
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4.36California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.2%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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5.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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7.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.96California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
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10.91San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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10.57University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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8.89University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 22.7% | 19.1% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Zack Taylor | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Victoria Chen | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.8% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 11.7% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 15.1% | 16.7% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 19.3% | 41.6% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 20.1% | 21.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 16.3% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.