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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+3.54vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+1.47vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+2.01vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+1.90vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.11+0.72vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+2.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-2.61vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.72-0.11vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-1.14+0.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-2.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.07-2.02vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-2.28-0.09vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.80-2.21vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.71-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.1%1st Place
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3.47California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.2%1st Place
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5.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.1%1st Place
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5.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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5.72University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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4.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.2%1st Place
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7.89University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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7.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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8.98University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.91California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
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10.79San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 13.9% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 22.5% | 18.7% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Zack Taylor | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Martin | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 5.2% |
| Jack Kisling | 15.6% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.7% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Victoria Chen | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 5.8% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 17.8% | 41.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 16.7% | 21.8% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.