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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.55vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+2.78vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.46vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+3.55vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+0.87vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.50-1.39vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+1.36vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-3.45vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.72-1.10vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-2.60+2.37vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-1.80-0.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.07-3.17vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-1.54-3.05vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.71-3.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.2%1st Place
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4.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.1%1st Place
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5.46University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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7.55University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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5.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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4.61California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.1%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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4.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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7.9University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.37California State University Channel Islands-2.600.0%1st Place
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10.81San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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8.83University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Berkeley-1.540.0%1st Place
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10.43University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 22.1% | 19.9% | 16.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 12.7% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Zack Taylor | 8.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 14.0% | 11.3% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Jack Kisling | 14.6% | 15.5% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Liam Moran | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 49.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 20.5% | 17.4% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 17.3% | 9.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 18.0% | 18.5% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.