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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.81vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.20+3.47vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-1.07+6.14vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+5.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+3.02vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-0.98vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33-1.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.72+0.16vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-2.72vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.71+0.85vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.50-6.10vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.11-6.13vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-2.60-0.59vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.81California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.2%1st Place
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5.47University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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9.14University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.03University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.02University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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5.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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5.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.1%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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6.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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10.85University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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4.9California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.1%1st Place
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5.87University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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12.41California State University Channel Islands-2.600.0%1st Place
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10.93San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 19.9% | 17.9% | 16.1% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sean Lipps | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 15.9% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
| Ryan Martin | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 3.8% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| Jack Kisling | 12.0% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 11.7% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 22.7% | 16.7% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Liam Moran | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 52.8% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 24.0% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.