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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.80vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+2.68vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-0.72+5.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+5.08vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.11+1.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+2.11vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33-1.89vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University-1.80+2.94vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.20-3.29vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.71+0.99vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-6.08vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-2.28+0.08vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-6.85vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.07-4.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.2%1st Place
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4.68California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.2%1st Place
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8.23University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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8.11University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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5.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.1%1st Place
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10.94San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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5.71University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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10.99University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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4.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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12.08California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
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6.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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9.17University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Farmer | 20.1% | 18.0% | 16.1% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 15.1% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Martin | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 14.6% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Zack Taylor | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Milne | 12.4% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 16.2% | 21.2% | 21.9% |
| Wilton Lawton | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Ian Johnston | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 20.6% | 21.2% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.7% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 19.7% | 42.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 6.8% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.