← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Rhode Island2.78+8.01vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College2.90+4.49vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University2.48+4.10vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University2.61+2.63vs Predicted
-
5Tulane University2.04+4.51vs Predicted
-
6Jacksonville University2.10+3.58vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.86vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+2.52vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University2.75-2.25vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University1.94+2.41vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-3.01vs Predicted
-
12University of Miami2.32-2.84vs Predicted
-
13University of Hawaii1.56-1.94vs Predicted
-
14Boston College2.20-5.49vs Predicted
-
15University of Southern California1.40-4.18vs Predicted
-
16University of South Florida0.90-3.15vs Predicted
-
17Northwestern University1.27-3.98vs Predicted
-
18Webb Institute1.43-6.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.01University of Rhode Island2.785.5%1st Place
-
6.49Dartmouth College2.9010.5%1st Place
-
7.1Harvard University2.488.2%1st Place
-
6.63Stanford University2.6110.8%1st Place
-
9.51Tulane University2.044.6%1st Place
-
9.58Jacksonville University2.104.5%1st Place
-
7.86U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
-
10.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.5%1st Place
-
6.75Georgetown University2.759.8%1st Place
-
12.41Fordham University1.942.2%1st Place
-
7.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.0%1st Place
-
9.16University of Miami2.325.8%1st Place
-
11.06University of Hawaii1.564.2%1st Place
-
8.51Boston College2.206.7%1st Place
-
10.82University of Southern California1.403.1%1st Place
-
12.85University of South Florida0.901.7%1st Place
-
13.02Northwestern University1.271.6%1st Place
-
11.73Webb Institute1.432.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Robert Bragg | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 16.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| Trey Summers | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Luke Harris | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 18.9% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 20.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.