Race 1A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

76.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Caroline Benson 6.6% 7.2% 8.5% 10.1% 8.9% 8.0% 8.8% 9.3% 9.7% 8.8% 6.8% 5.3% 2.0%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 25.0% 20.5% 17.0% 10.3% 10.1% 7.0% 4.3% 2.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 10.9% 12.3% 10.6% 7.7% 5.5% 5.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sarah Burn 7.6% 8.8% 8.6% 10.9% 9.3% 9.5% 8.7% 10.2% 7.5% 6.8% 6.9% 3.9% 1.3%
Caroline Bayless 9.5% 10.9% 9.8% 10.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.4% 8.8% 7.4% 6.6% 5.0% 3.1% 0.5%
Libby Redmond 6.7% 7.0% 7.7% 7.9% 9.2% 8.2% 7.7% 11.1% 8.4% 9.0% 7.4% 6.5% 3.2%
Lucy Brock 7.5% 5.1% 6.9% 7.5% 6.4% 7.5% 9.2% 9.7% 9.8% 10.3% 9.2% 7.5% 3.4%
Madison Bashaw 7.1% 8.0% 7.8% 8.3% 8.7% 10.1% 9.9% 9.5% 8.9% 8.1% 7.3% 4.0% 2.3%
J.J. Smith 5.5% 5.7% 6.0% 7.3% 7.8% 8.6% 9.6% 8.5% 10.5% 8.5% 8.6% 8.4% 5.0%
Emma Shakespeare 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 2.8% 4.5% 5.5% 6.0% 6.2% 9.2% 9.7% 12.8% 15.9% 17.1%
Samantha Jensen 2.0% 2.0% 2.7% 4.4% 4.0% 4.5% 5.5% 5.2% 7.6% 10.5% 13.7% 17.1% 20.8%
Hailey Pemberton 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4% 3.6% 4.7% 4.7% 5.3% 6.7% 10.0% 17.2% 37.2%
Emma AuBuchon 3.8% 4.9% 4.9% 6.5% 6.4% 7.7% 8.5% 8.9% 8.4% 12.4% 10.2% 10.5% 6.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.