Race 2A

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 24.8% 19.4% 16.8% 11.9% 9.4% 6.8% 5.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
J.J. Smith 5.3% 6.5% 6.1% 6.5% 6.8% 10.0% 8.6% 10.3% 8.8% 9.3% 11.0% 6.6% 4.2%
Emma Cowles 14.5% 15.4% 14.1% 11.5% 11.8% 9.7% 7.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Madison Bashaw 6.5% 6.8% 9.1% 9.1% 9.0% 8.3% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9% 8.6% 7.2% 5.4% 2.5%
Hailey Pemberton 2.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5% 4.0% 3.7% 5.3% 6.1% 7.6% 9.3% 19.1% 33.3%
Emma Shakespeare 2.6% 4.2% 3.0% 3.5% 4.6% 6.0% 6.9% 6.2% 7.2% 11.2% 13.0% 14.5% 17.1%
Samantha Jensen 3.2% 2.1% 3.1% 4.5% 3.4% 4.6% 5.3% 4.9% 6.6% 8.6% 11.2% 18.2% 24.3%
Lucy Brock 5.5% 6.6% 5.9% 7.2% 7.4% 8.8% 8.4% 9.6% 11.6% 10.4% 8.7% 6.1% 3.8%
Emma AuBuchon 5.4% 5.2% 4.6% 6.3% 6.3% 5.8% 8.5% 9.3% 11.4% 8.5% 9.7% 11.7% 7.3%
Sarah Burn 8.9% 8.4% 8.9% 10.1% 10.2% 9.7% 7.0% 8.3% 8.5% 7.7% 6.3% 4.6% 1.4%
Libby Redmond 6.4% 6.6% 8.4% 8.6% 8.7% 10.4% 8.1% 9.4% 9.2% 9.1% 7.2% 5.0% 2.9%
Caroline Benson 6.6% 7.9% 7.6% 8.9% 9.8% 7.3% 8.9% 10.2% 8.0% 9.1% 8.4% 5.3% 2.0%
Caroline Bayless 7.9% 9.1% 9.8% 9.6% 10.1% 8.6% 12.0% 9.3% 8.0% 5.8% 5.6% 3.2% 1.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.