Race 3A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 23.9% 21.0% 15.2% 13.3% 8.9% 6.3% 4.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 14.1% 16.1% 13.9% 12.6% 11.9% 8.4% 8.2% 6.1% 4.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2%
J.J. Smith 4.5% 5.9% 7.0% 7.2% 7.1% 8.7% 7.9% 9.3% 11.4% 12.1% 7.2% 8.0% 3.7%
Samantha Jensen 1.8% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 5.1% 4.7% 4.6% 5.7% 6.3% 9.3% 12.5% 19.4% 23.0%
Sarah Burn 9.3% 8.7% 10.2% 9.9% 8.7% 8.2% 9.7% 9.8% 8.9% 6.6% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9%
Caroline Benson 8.1% 7.9% 7.8% 8.4% 8.8% 9.2% 10.6% 10.0% 7.9% 6.7% 7.7% 5.0% 1.9%
Libby Redmond 6.8% 7.2% 8.1% 7.7% 7.3% 8.8% 10.4% 8.8% 8.7% 9.1% 8.4% 6.5% 2.2%
Caroline Bayless 8.9% 10.0% 10.2% 9.1% 9.9% 10.9% 8.9% 10.7% 7.5% 5.9% 4.6% 2.3% 1.1%
Emma AuBuchon 4.8% 4.4% 5.8% 5.6% 7.3% 6.3% 8.8% 8.8% 10.3% 9.5% 11.6% 9.1% 7.7%
Madison Bashaw 8.2% 7.2% 7.7% 8.2% 9.2% 11.2% 8.8% 7.7% 8.8% 8.6% 6.9% 5.1% 2.4%
Emma Shakespeare 2.6% 2.6% 3.7% 4.9% 4.3% 6.9% 5.8% 6.3% 8.9% 10.5% 13.1% 15.4% 15.0%
Lucy Brock 5.4% 5.5% 5.7% 7.7% 9.5% 7.2% 6.8% 9.4% 9.9% 10.0% 10.7% 8.1% 4.1%
Hailey Pemberton 1.6% 1.3% 2.0% 2.7% 2.0% 3.2% 4.8% 4.3% 5.4% 8.3% 10.4% 17.2% 36.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.