Race 4A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 23.9% 20.7% 17.6% 11.0% 9.3% 7.5% 4.9% 2.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 14.9% 15.6% 14.4% 11.8% 12.7% 9.0% 8.2% 5.6% 2.3% 3.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Emma Shakespeare 2.4% 2.3% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% 7.3% 6.6% 7.9% 9.2% 10.7% 16.7% 23.8% 2.1%
Caroline Bayless 9.0% 9.1% 9.8% 11.3% 11.6% 9.0% 9.0% 9.3% 8.4% 7.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.0%
Libby Redmond 7.1% 6.7% 7.2% 9.1% 8.3% 9.1% 8.5% 9.2% 11.3% 9.6% 8.3% 5.2% 0.4%
Madison Bashaw 8.0% 7.4% 8.6% 9.5% 7.8% 10.3% 9.7% 10.5% 8.5% 8.5% 6.8% 4.1% 0.3%
Emma AuBuchon 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 6.1% 7.4% 6.8% 8.1% 9.5% 10.4% 11.7% 11.3% 10.2% 1.0%
Samantha Jensen 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.2% 5.1% 7.2% 8.4% 10.8% 16.4% 30.9% 2.6%
Lucy Brock 5.4% 6.3% 5.6% 7.5% 8.0% 8.6% 11.1% 9.0% 9.6% 10.8% 9.9% 7.5% 0.7%
Sarah Burn 8.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.8% 12.2% 9.8% 9.0% 8.4% 9.1% 6.5% 6.2% 3.3% 0.1%
J.J. Smith 5.5% 7.2% 7.3% 7.1% 7.7% 9.9% 10.5% 9.9% 10.1% 9.9% 8.8% 5.6% 0.5%
Caroline Benson 6.5% 6.8% 8.5% 10.2% 7.6% 9.1% 9.0% 11.0% 10.1% 9.2% 7.5% 4.0% 0.5%
Sophia Rey 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% 1.9% 2.9% 91.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.