Race 5A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sarah Burn 7.8% 8.1% 11.2% 7.9% 10.3% 9.7% 8.8% 11.2% 9.6% 7.6% 5.1% 2.6% 0.1%
Emma Cowles 15.0% 14.6% 14.3% 14.1% 10.7% 8.7% 8.8% 5.4% 3.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 24.7% 20.2% 16.3% 13.5% 8.5% 7.7% 4.6% 2.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Lucy Brock 4.8% 7.3% 6.4% 6.5% 9.5% 8.2% 8.1% 10.4% 9.7% 11.6% 9.9% 7.0% 0.6%
Emma Shakespeare 3.6% 3.1% 3.4% 4.5% 4.4% 5.7% 6.7% 7.3% 9.9% 10.3% 18.6% 20.5% 2.0%
Libby Redmond 6.8% 6.5% 7.6% 8.0% 8.4% 8.6% 9.6% 11.0% 9.0% 10.4% 7.9% 6.0% 0.2%
Caroline Bayless 10.3% 10.2% 10.0% 10.2% 10.1% 8.7% 9.7% 8.4% 9.2% 7.6% 3.4% 2.1% 0.1%
Madison Bashaw 6.4% 8.7% 6.9% 9.3% 8.8% 11.8% 9.0% 10.4% 9.8% 8.6% 5.8% 4.2% 0.3%
Emma AuBuchon 5.2% 5.2% 4.7% 6.4% 7.0% 6.4% 9.2% 9.4% 11.2% 10.7% 12.0% 11.8% 0.8%
Caroline Benson 8.0% 7.8% 8.1% 8.6% 10.1% 9.3% 8.7% 9.3% 10.3% 8.5% 6.6% 4.2% 0.5%
J.J. Smith 5.2% 6.2% 8.2% 8.0% 8.8% 8.6% 10.7% 10.2% 8.6% 10.8% 8.9% 5.1% 0.7%
Samantha Jensen 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.3% 6.4% 6.0% 4.4% 6.7% 9.6% 18.1% 32.9% 3.2%
Sophia Rey 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 2.2% 3.3% 91.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.