Race 6A

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 15.6% 14.6% 13.8% 12.9% 11.1% 9.0% 7.3% 6.8% 5.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Caroline Bayless 8.8% 8.9% 10.4% 9.8% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8% 7.9% 9.0% 7.1% 3.6% 2.3% 0.0%
Sarah Burn 6.7% 8.3% 10.6% 9.6% 10.2% 10.3% 9.7% 9.8% 9.1% 7.4% 5.4% 2.7% 0.2%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 24.1% 19.5% 17.3% 12.3% 9.3% 7.5% 5.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Emma Shakespeare 3.9% 3.0% 2.9% 4.6% 4.3% 6.8% 6.4% 7.4% 8.4% 11.4% 17.6% 21.4% 1.9%
Lucy Brock 6.1% 6.4% 6.0% 8.4% 8.1% 7.0% 10.4% 10.5% 9.7% 10.2% 9.8% 7.0% 0.4%
Libby Redmond 7.5% 7.9% 7.7% 7.5% 7.8% 9.2% 9.2% 10.2% 9.4% 9.7% 7.6% 6.0% 0.3%
Emma AuBuchon 4.4% 5.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 8.5% 9.9% 8.2% 11.8% 11.8% 12.2% 9.8% 0.5%
Samantha Jensen 2.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 4.0% 3.2% 4.7% 6.1% 7.6% 11.4% 14.9% 33.1% 3.5%
J.J. Smith 6.8% 5.8% 6.4% 6.6% 8.5% 10.2% 8.4% 9.8% 8.9% 9.8% 12.4% 5.8% 0.6%
Madison Bashaw 7.1% 8.9% 8.2% 10.0% 9.7% 9.3% 9.0% 11.2% 9.6% 6.9% 6.0% 3.7% 0.4%
Caroline Benson 6.8% 7.6% 7.6% 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 10.1% 9.1% 9.9% 10.1% 7.5% 4.1% 0.5%
Sophia Rey 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.5% 3.7% 91.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.