Race 8A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Vanessa Lahrkamp 24.4% 20.5% 17.4% 12.5% 7.8% 6.9% 5.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Caroline Bayless 8.7% 9.7% 9.2% 11.6% 10.8% 10.4% 9.1% 9.3% 6.1% 8.0% 3.8% 2.5% 0.8%
Sarah Burn 7.2% 8.7% 9.7% 9.9% 10.2% 10.1% 9.4% 10.3% 8.1% 6.2% 6.3% 3.0% 0.9%
Emma Cowles 15.8% 15.5% 13.6% 12.3% 11.6% 9.1% 7.5% 5.6% 4.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3%
Madison Bashaw 8.6% 7.3% 9.5% 8.2% 9.4% 8.6% 9.4% 9.6% 8.4% 9.0% 6.1% 4.4% 1.5%
Caroline Benson 7.7% 7.5% 9.6% 7.3% 9.3% 9.3% 12.1% 8.3% 8.7% 7.1% 6.2% 4.9% 2.0%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 4.3% 5.7% 5.8% 5.0% 6.2% 8.6% 8.8% 14.4% 16.0% 15.2%
J.J. Smith 5.9% 7.4% 6.5% 6.8% 7.2% 8.1% 10.1% 10.4% 9.8% 9.9% 8.4% 6.8% 2.7%
Lucy Brock 5.8% 5.7% 6.4% 7.6% 7.8% 9.4% 10.2% 8.6% 9.4% 9.3% 9.2% 6.1% 4.5%
Hailey Pemberton 1.8% 2.0% 2.9% 2.4% 3.6% 2.9% 3.2% 5.3% 7.3% 8.9% 10.3% 18.1% 31.3%
Emma Shakespeare 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% 5.1% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 7.5% 8.5% 12.9% 11.6% 15.1% 13.0%
Libby Redmond 5.7% 7.4% 6.2% 8.7% 8.0% 9.3% 8.5% 9.5% 10.6% 7.7% 9.8% 5.7% 2.9%
Samantha Jensen 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 3.3% 2.7% 4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 8.2% 9.2% 12.1% 16.9% 24.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.