Race 9A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 15.7% 14.7% 14.7% 12.4% 9.9% 10.7% 6.8% 6.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 25.0% 20.2% 17.0% 12.5% 8.8% 7.0% 5.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Caroline Bayless 8.3% 10.3% 10.1% 10.4% 10.7% 9.4% 9.9% 10.0% 8.0% 5.7% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9%
Libby Redmond 6.0% 7.3% 6.1% 8.6% 9.3% 9.5% 9.9% 8.9% 7.7% 9.7% 9.6% 4.6% 2.8%
Lucy Brock 6.8% 5.6% 6.8% 8.2% 8.9% 7.6% 8.1% 10.5% 9.0% 9.9% 8.8% 6.5% 3.3%
Sarah Burn 9.2% 7.9% 10.4% 9.3% 11.5% 9.9% 8.8% 8.0% 8.1% 7.3% 4.7% 3.5% 1.4%
J.J. Smith 7.3% 5.3% 7.8% 6.9% 8.1% 6.4% 10.7% 9.5% 10.4% 9.6% 7.7% 7.4% 2.9%
Emma Shakespeare 3.2% 3.3% 3.9% 3.2% 4.5% 5.4% 5.3% 8.4% 9.2% 10.9% 13.0% 14.1% 15.6%
Madison Bashaw 6.7% 8.0% 8.2% 10.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.7% 10.3% 9.5% 6.8% 6.5% 5.6% 2.0%
Samantha Jensen 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 4.6% 5.7% 6.2% 7.9% 9.6% 11.9% 16.5% 23.2%
Hailey Pemberton 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 3.2% 4.0% 4.3% 3.9% 5.8% 6.5% 8.8% 12.0% 17.1% 29.4%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia 2.0% 3.9% 2.7% 4.5% 4.0% 5.5% 6.4% 6.9% 7.3% 10.5% 13.1% 16.2% 17.0%
Caroline Benson 6.0% 8.9% 7.5% 7.7% 8.2% 11.0% 10.7% 7.2% 11.3% 8.3% 6.4% 5.4% 1.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.