Race 10A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lucy Brock 5.3% 5.4% 5.9% 8.3% 8.0% 8.6% 8.4% 9.5% 10.7% 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 4.0%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 24.1% 21.1% 15.6% 12.1% 9.2% 6.3% 5.4% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 14.7% 15.4% 13.3% 11.2% 11.7% 8.8% 10.2% 5.7% 3.9% 2.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Madison Bashaw 6.1% 7.5% 8.9% 8.1% 9.1% 10.1% 8.6% 9.5% 9.8% 7.7% 8.3% 4.6% 1.7%
Libby Redmond 6.6% 6.2% 8.6% 9.2% 7.2% 7.5% 8.8% 8.7% 10.2% 9.4% 7.3% 7.4% 2.9%
J.J. Smith 6.2% 6.5% 5.9% 7.4% 7.6% 9.5% 7.3% 9.1% 10.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.4% 3.7%
Samantha Jensen 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.9% 4.7% 4.6% 6.1% 5.9% 9.4% 13.5% 17.6% 22.2%
Emma Shakespeare 2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 4.6% 4.8% 5.4% 8.1% 8.2% 11.0% 13.3% 14.6% 16.6%
Emma AuBuchon 5.0% 5.1% 4.3% 6.5% 6.7% 7.3% 8.6% 8.6% 8.9% 11.2% 9.9% 10.5% 7.4%
Caroline Benson 8.4% 6.2% 9.1% 8.2% 10.4% 8.2% 9.1% 7.9% 8.6% 9.1% 7.4% 5.0% 2.4%
Caroline Bayless 9.1% 10.4% 11.0% 11.9% 9.1% 9.3% 10.6% 7.9% 6.6% 7.6% 3.3% 2.3% 0.9%
Hailey Pemberton 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.7% 4.1% 4.0% 5.6% 5.8% 6.4% 10.8% 16.5% 36.7%
Sarah Burn 7.5% 7.6% 8.7% 8.5% 9.8% 10.8% 9.0% 10.3% 8.9% 7.5% 6.5% 3.5% 1.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.