Race 11A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Lucy Brock 5.3% 6.1% 5.9% 9.1% 7.3% 9.2% 7.1% 9.3% 10.3% 11.0% 8.8% 7.1% 3.5%
Libby Redmond 5.4% 6.6% 7.7% 7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 8.1% 9.3% 9.4% 10.6% 7.5% 6.4% 2.8%
Sarah Burn 6.4% 8.9% 9.6% 9.1% 9.6% 10.1% 9.4% 10.5% 8.3% 7.4% 6.1% 3.4% 1.2%
Caroline Benson 7.0% 6.5% 9.5% 9.6% 8.4% 8.3% 10.0% 8.8% 8.0% 9.3% 7.4% 5.7% 1.5%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 25.6% 20.6% 15.9% 12.3% 8.1% 7.6% 3.4% 3.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Caroline Bayless 9.6% 9.9% 9.8% 10.6% 10.8% 9.0% 9.6% 8.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 3.5% 0.6%
Madison Bashaw 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% 8.7% 8.2% 9.1% 9.3% 9.3% 10.3% 7.1% 7.1% 5.6% 1.9%
Emma Cowles 15.2% 16.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 10.0% 7.7% 5.0% 4.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1%
J.J. Smith 6.5% 5.3% 6.4% 6.1% 8.1% 7.4% 9.9% 9.4% 10.2% 9.1% 9.5% 7.5% 4.6%
Emma Shakespeare 2.9% 3.9% 3.3% 3.9% 4.6% 4.0% 6.5% 6.7% 8.6% 9.8% 13.2% 15.6% 17.0%
Emma AuBuchon 4.3% 4.5% 7.6% 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 8.5% 9.0% 11.1% 9.8% 10.1% 9.1% 5.0%
Hailey Pemberton 1.2% 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 3.2% 3.7% 4.9% 4.4% 5.5% 6.9% 10.4% 18.2% 35.7%
Samantha Jensen 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 3.8% 4.0% 5.6% 6.2% 6.4% 10.0% 12.2% 17.0% 26.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.