Race 1B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Blaire McCarthy 9.8% 8.9% 10.3% 10.3% 8.2% 8.7% 7.8% 10.4% 8.1% 6.8% 5.6% 3.8% 1.3%
Mia Hanes 5.4% 6.0% 4.8% 7.2% 6.5% 8.7% 7.3% 8.6% 9.8% 10.1% 9.9% 8.8% 6.9%
Sophia Devling 8.9% 11.1% 10.3% 7.8% 11.1% 7.9% 9.3% 8.6% 8.3% 7.0% 5.5% 3.2% 1.0%
Islay Van Dusen 3.0% 4.5% 4.2% 5.3% 5.3% 6.0% 6.1% 7.6% 7.4% 9.3% 12.0% 17.4% 11.9%
Megan Grimes 9.8% 11.5% 9.7% 10.8% 8.9% 8.2% 9.0% 7.8% 8.1% 6.4% 5.4% 2.7% 1.7%
Brooke Schmelz 9.5% 7.8% 8.3% 8.2% 10.5% 8.5% 8.3% 9.4% 6.6% 9.2% 6.8% 4.7% 2.2%
Heidi Hicks 3.1% 2.3% 2.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3.7% 3.5% 5.0% 6.8% 6.2% 9.5% 15.8% 35.4%
Ellie Harned 12.6% 11.0% 10.5% 9.8% 9.9% 10.8% 9.6% 8.3% 5.5% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 0.8%
Caroline Sibilly 15.8% 14.7% 13.5% 12.2% 10.1% 9.0% 8.2% 5.1% 5.1% 3.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4%
Aili Moffet 3.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.1% 3.6% 5.2% 5.7% 6.1% 7.2% 9.5% 10.7% 16.3% 22.6%
Annika Fedde 4.9% 5.2% 6.9% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 8.4% 8.1% 10.3% 9.5% 10.8% 8.1% 6.1%
Leah Rickard 4.9% 4.5% 5.9% 6.1% 5.5% 7.1% 6.5% 7.1% 9.3% 12.5% 10.6% 12.0% 8.0%
Marbella Marlo 8.8% 9.4% 9.8% 8.7% 10.3% 8.8% 10.3% 7.9% 7.5% 5.5% 7.4% 3.9% 1.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.