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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+9.74vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.04+7.30vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.48+3.73vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60+3.71vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.61+1.47vs Predicted
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6U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.95vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.32+1.63vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.75-1.21vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.25vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-1.42vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.20-2.39vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.94+0.38vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-2.42vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.10-4.59vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.56-4.02vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-4.41vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-4.00vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida0.90-5.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.74University of Southern California1.403.2%1st Place
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9.3Tulane University2.045.9%1st Place
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6.73Harvard University2.489.3%1st Place
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7.71U. S. Naval Academy2.607.9%1st Place
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6.47Stanford University2.619.7%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Military Academy2.056.3%1st Place
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8.63University of Miami2.325.9%1st Place
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6.79Georgetown University2.759.5%1st Place
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7.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.1%1st Place
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8.58University of Rhode Island2.786.2%1st Place
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8.61Boston College2.207.0%1st Place
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12.38Fordham University1.941.7%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.1%1st Place
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9.41Jacksonville University2.104.1%1st Place
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10.98University of Hawaii1.564.3%1st Place
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11.59Webb Institute1.433.2%1st Place
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13.0Northwestern University1.272.2%1st Place
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12.81University of South Florida0.902.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| James Paul | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 15.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Trey Summers | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 19.4% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 19.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.