Race 5B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grimes 9.4% 9.8% 11.5% 8.7% 9.6% 10.1% 8.3% 8.7% 7.4% 6.8% 5.1% 3.3% 1.3%
Brooke Schmelz 7.9% 8.0% 9.0% 8.2% 9.2% 8.7% 9.2% 8.3% 8.8% 8.3% 7.0% 5.2% 2.2%
Ellie Harned 10.5% 11.3% 11.8% 9.1% 11.4% 9.2% 9.7% 9.0% 5.1% 5.7% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7%
Islay Van Dusen 2.9% 4.0% 4.4% 5.7% 5.3% 5.5% 6.6% 7.9% 7.9% 10.3% 11.3% 15.8% 12.4%
Sophia Devling 10.1% 12.2% 9.5% 9.6% 8.5% 7.6% 10.3% 9.5% 7.3% 6.0% 5.1% 3.2% 1.1%
Caroline Sibilly 17.7% 14.7% 13.4% 12.5% 9.8% 8.4% 6.9% 5.2% 4.5% 4.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Blaire McCarthy 10.9% 8.8% 9.9% 9.4% 9.5% 9.9% 8.5% 6.8% 7.9% 7.5% 6.0% 3.8% 1.1%
Marbella Marlo 10.1% 9.9% 8.9% 9.9% 9.2% 10.0% 9.3% 9.3% 7.7% 5.8% 5.7% 3.0% 1.2%
Annika Fedde 5.8% 5.5% 5.0% 6.8% 6.2% 6.5% 8.1% 8.2% 10.2% 10.5% 8.1% 10.9% 8.2%
Mia Hanes 5.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 8.5% 7.2% 7.8% 9.5% 8.5% 11.2% 9.3% 6.3%
Aili Moffet 2.8% 2.3% 4.0% 4.8% 4.9% 5.4% 4.2% 6.3% 8.8% 9.4% 13.5% 15.0% 18.6%
Heidi Hicks 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.8% 4.0% 5.6% 6.4% 10.1% 16.8% 37.3%
Leah Rickard 4.8% 5.2% 3.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.8% 6.9% 9.0% 9.3% 10.8% 10.6% 10.9% 9.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.