Race 6B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grimes 10.4% 9.2% 10.2% 9.5% 9.9% 7.4% 10.2% 8.6% 7.7% 6.5% 6.1% 2.9% 1.4%
Marbella Marlo 8.6% 10.2% 9.0% 10.8% 9.0% 8.9% 9.8% 8.6% 8.4% 6.3% 5.5% 3.4% 1.5%
Sophia Devling 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.7% 8.1% 9.1% 10.2% 9.4% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 3.4% 1.0%
Blaire McCarthy 9.9% 7.7% 11.1% 9.1% 10.0% 8.3% 9.0% 8.7% 7.8% 8.3% 4.6% 3.9% 1.6%
Islay Van Dusen 4.8% 4.0% 3.2% 6.3% 5.6% 6.1% 5.3% 7.2% 8.4% 9.6% 12.1% 13.5% 13.9%
Ellie Harned 11.4% 12.0% 12.2% 11.2% 8.3% 10.5% 7.5% 7.6% 6.3% 6.2% 3.5% 2.2% 1.1%
Aili Moffet 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% 5.3% 4.3% 4.8% 5.8% 6.4% 8.2% 12.6% 16.8% 21.4%
Caroline Sibilly 16.1% 15.7% 14.7% 9.7% 10.7% 10.2% 8.2% 5.9% 3.8% 2.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Annika Fedde 5.8% 5.7% 4.7% 5.7% 6.6% 7.8% 7.7% 8.4% 10.8% 10.0% 8.8% 10.1% 7.9%
Mia Hanes 6.3% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1% 7.2% 8.1% 8.7% 7.7% 9.3% 8.7% 9.2% 9.6% 7.0%
Heidi Hicks 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.2% 4.6% 5.7% 9.0% 10.8% 16.8% 31.8%
Brooke Schmelz 7.5% 9.1% 8.1% 8.4% 8.3% 8.5% 8.0% 8.9% 9.2% 8.2% 7.1% 5.5% 3.2%
Leah Rickard 4.4% 4.8% 5.6% 5.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.4% 8.6% 9.6% 10.4% 11.4% 11.4% 8.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.