Race 11B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marbella Marlo 9.4% 9.6% 10.1% 9.0% 10.1% 10.0% 8.0% 9.4% 7.2% 7.2% 5.2% 3.1% 1.7%
Heidi Hicks 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.9% 5.2% 4.5% 5.1% 5.9% 10.1% 16.3% 36.4%
Mia Hanes 5.2% 5.0% 6.3% 7.2% 7.1% 6.6% 7.7% 8.9% 10.4% 9.8% 10.6% 9.8% 5.4%
Blaire McCarthy 10.0% 7.8% 12.9% 9.3% 7.8% 9.5% 7.6% 9.1% 7.5% 7.1% 6.4% 3.5% 1.5%
Caroline Sibilly 16.6% 18.3% 12.5% 10.8% 9.9% 9.1% 7.7% 4.7% 4.4% 3.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Sophia Devling 10.4% 9.7% 9.7% 10.9% 9.6% 9.1% 9.3% 7.0% 7.5% 6.1% 6.0% 3.1% 1.6%
Megan Grimes 11.2% 8.8% 9.7% 9.7% 11.3% 9.1% 8.0% 8.1% 7.0% 6.6% 5.6% 3.8% 1.1%
Brooke Schmelz 8.4% 8.5% 7.6% 9.5% 9.8% 7.6% 9.2% 9.2% 8.5% 8.7% 6.9% 4.6% 1.5%
Leah Rickard 5.1% 5.4% 4.2% 6.0% 6.3% 7.1% 7.5% 7.5% 9.5% 11.5% 10.3% 11.7% 7.9%
Aili Moffet 3.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 4.4% 5.8% 5.9% 9.2% 8.1% 11.3% 16.5% 21.5%
Annika Fedde 4.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.8% 8.1% 7.6% 9.2% 9.6% 9.2% 10.3% 9.4% 5.6%
Ellie Harned 10.3% 10.9% 11.2% 10.3% 9.8% 9.1% 9.8% 8.7% 7.0% 5.2% 2.7% 4.1% 0.9%
Islay Van Dusen 2.9% 4.1% 3.7% 4.5% 4.7% 6.4% 6.6% 7.8% 7.1% 11.6% 13.1% 12.8% 14.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.