Race 12B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Megan Grimes 9.3% 9.7% 10.4% 10.8% 8.3% 9.0% 8.4% 9.3% 6.8% 8.1% 5.0% 3.1% 1.8%
Brooke Schmelz 8.0% 7.7% 8.9% 9.5% 7.5% 7.9% 9.4% 7.5% 9.2% 9.2% 8.1% 4.6% 2.5%
Ellie Harned 10.4% 12.2% 10.4% 11.1% 8.2% 11.6% 8.6% 8.7% 6.4% 5.2% 4.5% 2.1% 0.6%
Heidi Hicks 1.7% 2.2% 1.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 4.6% 4.7% 7.1% 7.1% 8.6% 17.2% 35.3%
Leah Rickard 5.6% 5.3% 6.4% 5.8% 6.4% 7.6% 6.4% 8.1% 8.7% 10.0% 12.5% 9.7% 7.5%
Blaire McCarthy 11.4% 8.4% 9.1% 11.1% 9.5% 9.2% 8.3% 7.7% 7.8% 6.4% 5.1% 4.3% 1.7%
Islay Van Dusen 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 4.9% 7.1% 8.2% 9.4% 12.8% 15.8% 11.9%
Marbella Marlo 10.0% 9.5% 9.8% 8.1% 10.6% 9.1% 10.4% 8.7% 7.9% 5.3% 5.7% 3.6% 1.3%
Annika Fedde 5.8% 5.8% 5.4% 6.0% 6.5% 6.5% 7.9% 8.0% 9.8% 9.7% 10.3% 9.9% 8.4%
Aili Moffet 3.7% 3.6% 2.3% 3.4% 4.4% 5.0% 4.8% 6.9% 6.9% 9.8% 10.3% 17.2% 21.7%
Mia Hanes 5.1% 6.0% 8.0% 5.4% 8.1% 7.4% 9.1% 9.1% 9.5% 8.5% 9.5% 8.6% 5.7%
Caroline Sibilly 15.8% 15.0% 13.7% 11.0% 10.5% 9.4% 7.9% 5.8% 4.3% 3.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0%
Sophia Devling 8.5% 10.2% 9.3% 9.0% 11.4% 8.7% 9.3% 8.4% 7.4% 7.5% 5.5% 3.2% 1.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.