Race 1C

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ximena Escobar 7.8% 6.3% 10.0% 9.0% 9.2% 8.3% 8.3% 9.3% 9.1% 8.0% 7.1% 4.6% 3.0%
Brielle Willoughby 14.2% 14.4% 14.4% 12.6% 10.7% 9.7% 6.7% 6.1% 4.6% 3.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Maisie MacGillivray 2.4% 3.0% 2.6% 3.6% 4.5% 5.7% 7.0% 6.9% 5.9% 9.5% 12.6% 15.7% 20.6%
Cordelia Burn 15.6% 14.3% 13.0% 12.3% 10.8% 9.1% 8.3% 4.7% 5.5% 3.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2%
Sophie Fisher 17.7% 17.2% 14.5% 11.4% 9.1% 9.9% 7.5% 4.0% 3.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2%
Kay Brunsvold 8.6% 9.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.8% 10.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.8% 5.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2.2%
Izzy Wu-Karr 4.4% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.1% 7.2% 6.0% 8.8% 12.1% 17.0% 16.5%
Lucy Spearman 6.4% 7.1% 6.3% 7.8% 8.0% 7.5% 9.9% 8.8% 9.3% 9.7% 8.1% 6.8% 4.3%
Sophia Peck 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 6.6% 7.5% 6.9% 8.1% 7.6% 11.2% 10.0% 8.8% 8.7% 9.3%
Lily Flack 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.2% 4.7% 5.4% 6.2% 7.1% 9.1% 8.4% 10.4% 14.4% 20.1%
Avery Canavan 4.8% 4.1% 6.1% 6.9% 6.0% 7.0% 8.2% 9.0% 10.1% 10.6% 8.8% 9.4% 9.0%
Emily Scherer 5.8% 6.5% 6.9% 8.3% 7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 11.4% 8.1% 9.4% 9.6% 6.5% 4.9%
Lourdes Gallo 3.5% 5.8% 4.5% 5.4% 7.5% 7.0% 7.9% 9.3% 8.6% 10.3% 10.7% 10.3% 9.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.