Race 4C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cordelia Burn 15.1% 14.4% 13.9% 11.2% 11.7% 9.6% 6.6% 6.0% 5.0% 3.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Brielle Willoughby 14.9% 13.5% 14.9% 12.7% 9.7% 9.3% 7.6% 7.0% 4.5% 2.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Ximena Escobar 6.1% 8.3% 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 7.8% 9.3% 10.2% 9.3% 9.0% 5.6% 4.4% 3.0%
Emily Scherer 6.1% 7.7% 5.0% 7.8% 9.9% 9.3% 9.6% 6.8% 9.5% 8.4% 8.0% 7.6% 4.3%
Sophie Fisher 17.9% 17.5% 12.8% 11.7% 10.7% 10.2% 6.7% 4.4% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Maisie MacGillivray 3.5% 3.2% 3.4% 4.1% 4.3% 4.9% 6.4% 5.8% 7.5% 9.6% 12.4% 14.1% 20.8%
Lucy Spearman 8.2% 5.7% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 7.2% 9.9% 8.4% 8.9% 10.5% 8.5% 6.1% 4.7%
Lily Flack 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 4.6% 5.8% 5.7% 7.5% 8.0% 8.7% 14.4% 12.7% 18.3%
Kay Brunsvold 8.3% 7.0% 8.9% 9.8% 10.4% 7.9% 8.4% 10.2% 8.5% 7.0% 5.6% 5.0% 3.0%
Sophia Peck 6.4% 5.2% 4.7% 6.2% 6.8% 7.6% 9.7% 7.2% 8.3% 9.1% 10.0% 10.3% 8.5%
Avery Canavan 4.2% 5.1% 6.3% 6.7% 5.7% 7.2% 8.1% 8.9% 10.8% 10.3% 8.6% 10.0% 8.1%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.5% 3.5% 3.3% 4.4% 4.9% 5.3% 5.4% 8.0% 6.5% 9.5% 11.6% 14.8% 20.3%
Lourdes Gallo 3.9% 4.9% 6.4% 5.4% 5.4% 7.9% 6.6% 9.6% 9.4% 9.5% 10.5% 12.2% 8.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.