Race 5C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emily Scherer 6.4% 6.6% 7.9% 8.1% 7.5% 9.0% 8.5% 9.7% 9.7% 7.9% 8.4% 6.5% 3.8%
Cordelia Burn 14.6% 14.8% 13.3% 12.9% 10.6% 10.0% 7.2% 6.0% 4.4% 3.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1%
Ximena Escobar 6.0% 8.3% 9.2% 8.4% 9.8% 9.0% 9.1% 9.9% 7.7% 8.0% 6.0% 6.4% 2.2%
Lucy Spearman 6.0% 6.7% 6.5% 7.4% 8.1% 7.9% 10.5% 7.5% 9.7% 9.9% 7.5% 6.6% 5.7%
Kay Brunsvold 8.7% 10.1% 7.8% 10.0% 9.4% 8.0% 7.9% 9.8% 8.8% 7.2% 6.0% 3.6% 2.7%
Brielle Willoughby 15.9% 13.8% 15.3% 11.5% 9.2% 9.1% 7.7% 6.5% 5.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5%
Sophie Fisher 18.2% 15.1% 14.9% 12.3% 8.8% 9.2% 7.4% 5.5% 4.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Avery Canavan 4.4% 5.2% 4.1% 5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 8.8% 9.2% 7.6% 9.4% 10.5% 12.4% 8.6%
Maisie MacGillivray 3.4% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 4.9% 4.3% 5.1% 6.5% 7.6% 9.9% 10.9% 15.2% 22.1%
Lourdes Gallo 5.5% 5.2% 5.8% 4.6% 7.3% 7.9% 8.9% 8.0% 8.2% 9.0% 10.9% 9.0% 9.7%
Lily Flack 3.3% 2.5% 4.1% 5.2% 4.9% 6.5% 5.2% 8.0% 9.3% 8.5% 12.4% 14.2% 15.9%
Sophia Peck 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 6.2% 7.8% 7.0% 8.3% 6.2% 9.5% 12.2% 9.8% 10.0% 8.2%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.6% 3.3% 2.8% 4.3% 5.1% 4.8% 5.4% 7.2% 8.2% 9.7% 12.5% 13.7% 20.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.