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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+7.55vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+6.44vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.95vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+2.71vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.27vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.59+7.55vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.82+2.32vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.68-0.55vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.28-0.55vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.69+0.33vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.18-6.02vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.73-2.59vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-4.45vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.77-4.76vs Predicted
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150.68-0.90vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.23vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.17-5.08vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.20-4.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.7%1st Place
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8.44University of Rhode Island2.785.8%1st Place
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9.95Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
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6.71Brown University2.739.7%1st Place
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7.27U. S. Naval Academy2.608.1%1st Place
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13.55Northeastern University1.591.8%1st Place
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9.32George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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7.45Roger Williams University2.688.0%1st Place
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8.45Tulane University2.285.8%1st Place
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10.33Florida State University1.693.7%1st Place
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4.98Harvard University3.1816.5%1st Place
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9.41Webb Institute1.734.9%1st Place
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8.55Cornell University2.385.2%1st Place
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9.24University of Pennsylvania1.774.8%1st Place
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14.10.681.0%1st Place
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9.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.0%1st Place
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11.92Eckerd College1.173.0%1st Place
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13.01Connecticut College1.201.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 23.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Peter Foley | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.5% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Bridget Green | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Jack Homa | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 27.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Jordan Vieira | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.3% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 17.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.