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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.20+7.62vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.32+6.74vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.78vs Predicted
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4U. S. Military Academy2.05+4.91vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+1.70vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.94+6.58vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.61-0.37vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.24vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+1.44vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.48-3.23vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.04-1.90vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.78-3.36vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida0.90-0.15vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.40-3.27vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.10-5.74vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.56-4.87vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-4.27vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.43-6.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.62Boston College2.205.9%1st Place
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8.74University of Miami2.325.7%1st Place
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7.78U. S. Naval Academy2.607.1%1st Place
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8.91U. S. Military Academy2.056.2%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University2.7510.4%1st Place
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12.58Fordham University1.942.1%1st Place
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6.63Stanford University2.619.8%1st Place
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7.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.318.3%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.7%1st Place
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6.77Harvard University2.489.6%1st Place
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9.1Tulane University2.045.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Rhode Island2.786.3%1st Place
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12.85University of South Florida0.902.0%1st Place
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10.73University of Southern California1.403.6%1st Place
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9.26Jacksonville University2.106.0%1st Place
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11.13University of Hawaii1.562.7%1st Place
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12.73Northwestern University1.272.1%1st Place
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11.63Webb Institute1.433.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| James Paul | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 14.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Andreas Keswater | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 19.8% |
| Luke Harris | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Trey Summers | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 19.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.