Race 12C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sophie Fisher 17.1% 15.6% 16.0% 10.4% 9.7% 9.4% 7.4% 6.5% 3.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Brielle Willoughby 14.2% 15.3% 13.5% 11.9% 11.2% 8.5% 8.6% 6.2% 5.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6%
Cordelia Burn 14.3% 16.2% 12.3% 11.1% 9.9% 11.4% 8.1% 6.1% 4.3% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Lily Flack 2.4% 3.0% 3.8% 5.1% 4.2% 5.6% 6.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 12.8% 13.3% 19.9%
Sophia Peck 5.6% 4.8% 6.1% 7.2% 8.3% 6.6% 6.8% 8.0% 9.1% 10.9% 10.4% 8.8% 7.4%
Lourdes Gallo 5.8% 4.7% 5.7% 6.4% 5.9% 7.9% 7.3% 8.1% 10.4% 10.3% 9.3% 10.2% 8.0%
Maisie MacGillivray 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.3% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% 7.7% 10.5% 11.0% 15.8% 19.5%
Avery Canavan 4.2% 5.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.7% 7.2% 8.0% 9.8% 8.4% 11.0% 10.7% 9.1% 10.3%
Ximena Escobar 8.4% 6.5% 8.9% 8.9% 8.3% 8.2% 10.7% 8.6% 8.2% 7.3% 6.6% 5.6% 3.8%
Kay Brunsvold 9.3% 8.2% 7.6% 9.8% 10.6% 8.4% 8.5% 8.0% 8.1% 7.2% 6.6% 5.6% 2.1%
Lucy Spearman 5.7% 7.1% 8.4% 8.5% 7.7% 8.9% 9.8% 7.9% 9.7% 8.8% 6.4% 6.5% 4.6%
Emily Scherer 6.3% 5.8% 6.0% 8.9% 8.7% 7.8% 7.1% 10.5% 7.9% 10.2% 9.7% 6.8% 4.3%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.8% 7.4% 9.2% 8.5% 11.4% 15.7% 19.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.