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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.29+6.69vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+4.50vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.70vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+4.66vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.81+7.65vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.45vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+0.88vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-0.41vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.49-1.33vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.45-2.56vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.83-1.10vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.39-1.69vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59-0.42vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.14-0.91vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-7.53vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.78-6.29vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.82-7.53vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.72-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.69Yale University2.297.7%1st Place
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6.5Brown University2.919.3%1st Place
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8.7University of Pennsylvania2.425.7%1st Place
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8.66Bowdoin College2.066.1%1st Place
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12.65Old Dominion University1.811.9%1st Place
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9.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.1%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.6%1st Place
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7.59Cornell University2.387.8%1st Place
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7.67College of Charleston2.498.5%1st Place
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7.44Roger Williams University2.458.6%1st Place
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9.9Tufts University1.834.2%1st Place
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10.31Boston University1.394.3%1st Place
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12.58Northeastern University1.593.2%1st Place
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13.09University of Wisconsin1.141.8%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.5%1st Place
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9.71North Carolina State University1.784.7%1st Place
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9.47George Washington University1.825.1%1st Place
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14.21SUNY Maritime College0.721.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 14.1% |
| Will Murray | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 15.1% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 18.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Adam Larson | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.