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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.74vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.94+10.33vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+4.87vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+4.93vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.61+1.44vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+2.68vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+1.53vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.04+1.30vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.09+3.39vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy2.05-1.05vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University-1.38-0.55vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.75-5.23vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.56-1.94vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-3.60vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.30-4.05vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.48-9.36vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-4.07vs Predicted
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18University of Southern California1.40-7.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.74U. S. Naval Academy2.606.4%1st Place
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12.33Fordham University1.942.1%1st Place
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7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.9%1st Place
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8.93University of Miami2.326.3%1st Place
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6.44Stanford University2.6111.1%1st Place
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8.68University of Rhode Island2.785.6%1st Place
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8.53Boston College2.206.9%1st Place
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9.3Tulane University2.045.4%1st Place
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12.39University of South Florida1.092.4%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Military Academy2.055.8%1st Place
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10.45Jacksonville University-1.383.6%1st Place
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6.77Georgetown University2.7511.1%1st Place
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11.06University of Hawaii1.563.9%1st Place
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10.4University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.5%1st Place
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10.95Webb Institute1.304.3%1st Place
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6.64Harvard University2.489.8%1st Place
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12.93Northwestern University1.271.8%1st Place
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10.65University of Southern California1.403.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 16.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 15.7% |
| James Paul | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| Emily Allen | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Trey Summers | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jake Weinstein | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 20.1% |
| Luke Harris | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.