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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.20+7.65vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.94+10.24vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.64vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.48+2.78vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75+1.59vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+2.82vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.61-0.55vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy2.05+1.28vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.25vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.32-1.14vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-0.60vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.30-0.75vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.40-2.33vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.09-1.85vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.56-4.00vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University-1.38-5.55vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-4.29vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.04-8.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.65Boston College2.206.6%1st Place
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12.24Fordham University1.942.5%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Naval Academy2.607.2%1st Place
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6.78Harvard University2.488.9%1st Place
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6.59Georgetown University2.7510.4%1st Place
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8.82University of Rhode Island2.785.9%1st Place
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6.45Stanford University2.6110.1%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Military Academy2.055.3%1st Place
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7.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.8%1st Place
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8.86University of Miami2.325.8%1st Place
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10.4University of California at Santa Barbara1.783.9%1st Place
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11.25Webb Institute1.302.8%1st Place
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10.67University of Southern California1.403.9%1st Place
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12.15University of South Florida1.092.1%1st Place
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11.0University of Hawaii1.564.0%1st Place
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10.45Jacksonville University-1.384.0%1st Place
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12.71Northwestern University1.272.8%1st Place
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9.3Tulane University2.046.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 14.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% |
| Luke Harris | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| Trey Summers | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| Emily Allen | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| Jake Weinstein | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 21.0% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.