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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+5.47vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.22+6.45vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+2.14vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.50+3.63vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+3.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+1.27vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.43-2.40vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.62-0.71vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.12-0.07vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.11-0.93vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.65-3.84vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.43-0.52vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.37-1.44vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.75-7.37vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-5.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.45Brown University2.220.0%1st Place
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5.14University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.63Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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7.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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4.6Yale University3.430.2%1st Place
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7.29Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.93Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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7.16Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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11.48Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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11.56University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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6.63Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Jed Bell | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.6% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Maks Groom | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Daniel Unangst | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 16.0% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Will Priebe | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% |
| Connell Phillipps | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
| Christopher Lukens | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 17.7% | 26.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 16.9% | 27.8% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.