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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+5.42vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.75+4.59vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.50+4.57vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.43+0.57vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23+0.32vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.37+5.45vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.65+0.13vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-0.69vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-0.81vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12-0.97vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.11-1.97vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.62-4.56vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.43-1.61vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.22-5.41vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.59Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.57Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.57Yale University3.430.2%1st Place
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5.32University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.45University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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7.13Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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8.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.0%1st Place
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9.03Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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9.03University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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7.44Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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11.39Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
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8.59Brown University2.220.0%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 16.8% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Humberto Porrata | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 17.2% | 26.1% |
| Christopher Lukens | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Maks Groom | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
| Will Priebe | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 7.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 27.2% |
| Jed Bell | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.