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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+5.41vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.12+6.70vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+4.21vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+5.97vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.75+1.84vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+2.66vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.43-2.38vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.50-0.36vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.62-1.83vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-1.62vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.23-5.71vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.65-4.69vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.11-3.74vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.37-2.62vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.43-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.7Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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7.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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6.84Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.66Brown University2.220.0%1st Place
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4.62Yale University3.430.2%1st Place
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7.64Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.17Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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5.29University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.31Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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9.26University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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11.38University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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11.16Connecticut College1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Will Priebe | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 5.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 14.3% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Jed Bell | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 17.2% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.5% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 27.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.