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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.07+6.77vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+3.53vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.03+1.80vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.56+2.29vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.45+1.74vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.11+5.03vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.45-0.38vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+2.68vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.29-4.88vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-1.83vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.13-0.09vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.69-2.55vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-3.74vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.73-2.05vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.43-8.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.77University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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4.8Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.29Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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6.74Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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11.03University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.62Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.12Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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8.17Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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10.91University of South Florida1.130.0%1st Place
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9.45Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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11.95Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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6.68Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Williams | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.0% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.0% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley III | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| David Pearce | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 16.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 17.5% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 16.5% |
| William George | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 6.3% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 5.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 31.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.