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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.00+7.03vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+4.60vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+2.61vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.03+0.85vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29-0.74vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.11+5.00vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.45-0.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+2.65vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-0.02vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.07-2.01vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.56-4.59vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.45-5.13vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.73-0.89vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.69-4.86vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.13-4.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.03Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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6.6Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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4.85Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.26Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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11.0University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.65Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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8.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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7.99University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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6.41Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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6.87Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.11Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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9.14Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.83University of South Florida1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.8% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 18.5% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| David Pearce | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% |
| Miles Williams | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Peter Foley III | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 34.8% |
| William George | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Jordan Byrd | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.