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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+4.63vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.45+4.52vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.56+3.27vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.29+0.16vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+5.65vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.07+1.92vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.03-2.11vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43-1.25vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-2.41vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-0.92vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.13-0.08vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.11-0.76vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.73-0.85vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.69-4.84vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-6.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.52Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.27Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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4.16Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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7.92University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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4.89Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.75Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.59Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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10.92University of South Florida1.130.0%1st Place
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11.24University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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12.15Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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9.16Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.06Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Peter Foley III | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 18.5% | 17.7% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Pearce | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 14.6% |
| Miles Williams | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.3% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Jordan Byrd | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 33.4% |
| William George | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.