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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.18vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.56+4.12vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+2.63vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+6.60vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.69+4.21vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+0.64vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+1.98vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.03-3.11vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.07-1.12vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.00-1.75vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.43-4.22vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.13-0.86vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.73-0.89vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.11-3.04vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.45-8.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.18Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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6.12Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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5.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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9.21Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.64Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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4.89Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.88University of Rhode Island2.070.0%1st Place
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8.25Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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6.78Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.14University of South Florida1.130.0%1st Place
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12.11Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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6.63Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 18.9% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley III | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| David Pearce | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 15.2% |
| William George | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 5.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.8% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 17.0% | 33.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.1% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.