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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.56+5.21vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.45+4.49vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+5.98vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+2.71vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+0.75vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.29-1.82vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.69+2.16vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.45-1.36vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.03-4.23vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.07-1.99vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.32vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.13-0.81vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-4.60vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.73-2.06vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.11-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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6.49Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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6.71Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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4.18Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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9.16Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.64Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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4.77Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.01University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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11.19University of South Florida1.130.0%1st Place
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8.4Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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11.94Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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10.89University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Foley III | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 17.5% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William George | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.5% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 1.6% |
| David Pearce | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 16.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 17.6% | 30.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 17.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.