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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.18vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.45+4.50vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.56+3.26vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+2.73vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+5.63vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.36vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+1.98vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.03-3.05vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.69+0.16vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.45-3.24vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.13-0.11vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.73+0.24vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.07-4.86vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.00-5.92vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.11-4.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.18Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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6.5Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.26Tulane University2.560.1%1st Place
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6.73Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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5.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.1%1st Place
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4.95Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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9.16Brown University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.76Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.89University of South Florida1.130.0%1st Place
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12.24Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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8.08Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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10.86University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 17.7% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Peter Foley III | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| David Pearce | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 15.7% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William George | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Byrd | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 33.4% |
| Miles Williams | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.